Experiment with models in live systems

Analyze assignment, logging, feedback delay, interference, and rollout decisions while distinguishing causal online evidence from offline score differences.

10 published lessons1 module250 min of guided study
  1. 01
    Experiment with models in live systemsadvanced · 10 lessons

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Experiment with models in live systems

Analyze assignment, logging, feedback delay, interference, and rollout decisions while distinguishing causal online evidence from offline score differences.

  1. 01

    Randomize the entity whose outcome you intend to compare

    Connect stable assignment, repeated requests, analysis units, and the causal question.

    25 min
  2. 02

    Keep eligibility, assignment, and actual intervention separate

    Design a joinable exposure ledger without conditioning causal estimates on treatment-created activity.

    25 min
  3. 03

    Randomize groups when one treatment changes another unit’s outcome

    Distinguish direct assignment effects, global rollout effects, cluster designs, and dependence-aware uncertainty.

    25 min
  4. 04

    Wait for comparable outcome windows or model censoring explicitly

    Separate event time, follow-up maturity, attribution, and logging lag in model experiments.

    25 min
  5. 05

    Use allocation imbalance to investigate the observation process

    Calculate an SRM diagnostic and distinguish detection, root cause, and causal validity.

    25 min
  6. 06

    Monitor with a rule whose error guarantee survives stopping

    Contrast naïve repeated fixed-horizon tests with predeclared multiple looks and valid confidence sequences.

    25 min
  7. 07

    Remove predictable variation without adjusting away treatment

    Derive CUPED control variates, their variance reduction, and the assumptions that keep the treatment contrast intact.

    25 min
  8. 08

    Estimate a policy from logged actions only where identification permits

    Derive inverse propensity and doubly robust estimators with explicit support, observation, and nuisance-model assumptions.

    25 min
  9. 09

    Choose between learning an effect and allocating reward

    Separate cumulative-reward objectives, changing propensities, nonstationary mixtures, and valid adaptive inference.

    25 min
  10. 10

    Decide with uncertainty and retain a compatible rollback state

    Combine effect bounds, guardrails, data-quality checks, and immutable serving manifests without overstating evidence.

    25 min
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