Precision, accuracy, and a defensible bias correction
Compare repeatability with agreement to a reference and correct an estimated bias while retaining the correction's uncertainty.
On this page
The question for today
What you’ll understand
- Distinguish precision, trueness, and qualitative accuracy.
- Estimate a local bias against a reference with uncertainty.
- Apply a correction without treating its estimated value as exact.
A tight cluster of readings is reassuring only if you know where that cluster ought to be. Precision concerns agreement among replicate measurements under specified conditions. Trueness concerns the relation between an average over repetitions and a reference value, through systematic effects. Accuracy is a qualitative description of agreement with a true quantity value, not a number obtained by relabeling the standard deviation. These distinctions lead to different experimental checks and different improvements.
Use repetitions to characterize precision
Precision must name the conditions of replication. Repeatability usually holds the procedure, operator, measuring system, location, and short time interval fixed. Intermediate precision changes some conditions within one location; reproducibility changes specified broader conditions, such as laboratories. A small repeatability standard deviation therefore does not promise agreement after transport, a software change, or a new operator. Use a replication design that matches the conditions under which the reported performance will actually matter.
Report whether a standard deviation describes individual observations or an estimated mean. These are different summaries, even in an ideal independent sample. An instrument can give nearly identical readings that are all displaced by a common offset. Improving that repeatability further would barely improve agreement to a reference. Conversely, a mean can agree with a reference by coincidence despite very poor individual-reading precision. Examine both location and spread rather than treating a single attractive statistic as sufficient evidence.
Estimate a bias rather than claiming to know the error
The reference value is itself an estimate with uncertainty. A difference between a measured mean and that reference estimates a bias under the comparison conditions; it does not reveal the exact error relative to an unknowable perfect value. Evaluate the uncertainty of the comparison, including covariance if references or processing are shared. A difference small compared with its uncertainty may provide weak evidence for a nonzero bias, but it does not prove the instrument is unbiased under every condition.
A local bias correction requires a stability and transfer argument. A constant offset found near room temperature may change with temperature, range, orientation, or time. Apply it only where evidence or a physical model supports it. If the effect scales with input, use a scale correction rather than a universal additive offset. Comparing multiple reference values and environmental conditions distinguishes these possibilities. The correction model should become more detailed because evidence demands it, not merely because more parameters are available.
Separate improvement from certification language
Applying an estimated correction can improve expected agreement, but residual uncertainty remains. Do not add the estimated bias magnitude in quadrature as though it were its standard uncertainty, and do not drop the correction uncertainty after applying it. A bias magnitude describes an estimated signed displacement; an uncertainty describes incomplete knowledge. When an effect cannot be corrected adequately, document the treatment and its justification rather than concealing it inside an unexplained accuracy percentage.
A numerical product specification may use the commercial label accuracy for a maximum permissible error. That is a contractual limit under stated conditions, not automatically a standard uncertainty or a probability distribution. Read the definition and operating conditions before using it in a budget. Verification against a tolerance also needs a decision rule when uncertainty is material. A result close to a limit cannot support the same confident conformity statement as one well inside it without additional information.
Work it through
Correct a future reading using a reference campaign
A reference is with standard uncertainty . A calibration campaign gives mean indication with standard uncertainty , independent of the reference. A later independent indication is with standard uncertainty . Assume a stable local offset.
Estimate the offset as . Its standard uncertainty is , so the additive correction is with the same uncertainty.
Correct the later indication: . The sign follows from the positive indication error: the instrument tended to read high at calibration.
Under the stated independence, propagate the later-reading and correction uncertainties: . No additional averaging has made the estimated correction exact.
A suitable report is approximately with standard uncertainty, conditional on the stable local-offset model and the stated independence.
The living notebook
Explore the model
Interactive lab · probability
Separate distribution width from its center
This exact binomial lab changes success probability p and trial count n, showing the count mean and variance. At n = 10, predict how moving p from 0.5 to 0.9 changes both center and spread, then check. Compare distributions of success fractions by dividing the readouts by n and n². It illustrates distinct center and spread, not actual bias calibration, continuous measurement scatter, or a claim that narrow distributions are accurate.
- Mean · np
- 5
- Variance · np(1−p)
- 2.5
- Total probability
- 1
These are exact binomial probabilities for independent trials with one fixed success probability. Playback tours the distribution; it does not resample outcomes. Parameter changes pause playback and recompute the model at the current elapsed time. Reset restores both parameters and returns time to zero. Playback starts paused. Adjust either parameter, then choose Play or Step.
Look forA distribution's narrowness and the location of its center answer different questions.
Pause & reason
Check your understanding
Your turn
Try it yourself
A supplier specifies a maximum permissible indication error of ±0.2 °C under listed conditions. A colleague enters 0.2 °C as a standard uncertainty and claims it is a 95 percent interval. Explain the two unsupported steps and what information is needed.
Take a moment to make a prediction or work it out on paper. Open a hint when you need one.
Give me a hint
A tolerance bound, a standard deviation, and a coverage interval are different mathematical objects.
Compare with the solution
A maximum permissible error is a specified limit, not automatically the standard deviation of an input distribution. Converting it to a standard uncertainty requires a justified information model; a uniform distribution within a trusted bound, for example, would use the half-width divided by the square root of three. Calling the same bound a 95 percent interval additionally asserts a coverage probability that the specification may not provide. Check the supplier's conditions, calibration evidence, interpretation of the limit, and whether actual drift or use conditions require extra contributions before assigning a probability model.
Keep the idea
Take it with you
- Precision describes replicate agreement under named conditions rather than closeness to a reference.
- An estimated bias and uncertainty in that estimate are different quantities.
- Correct significant modeled effects while retaining uncertainty and transfer assumptions.
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