An outcome grader must test effects while preserving an independent target
Design state-based checks, protected holdouts, and grader audits that distinguish task success from convincing text, test manipulation, or incomplete evaluation coverage.
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The question for today
What you’ll understand
- Specify an outcome predicate using authoritative task state and required invariants.
- Separate hidden grader protection from leakage, coverage, and grader correctness.
- Calculate grader precision, recall, and observed-rate distortion on an audited sample.
A convincing final answer can describe a change that never committed, and a passing visible example can leave the intended task unresolved. Outcome grading should inspect the relevant artifact or environment state under a documented contract. Hidden tests help preserve an independent evaluation target, but hiding a test does not make it complete or correct. Audit the grader itself, protect its execution boundary, and keep the distinction between an observed benchmark pass and the broader claim that the application goal is truly satisfied.
Turn the goal into observable, scoped predicates
Define what must change and what must remain valid. A file-edit task can require a specific behavior plus preservation of unrelated functionality; a database task can require the correct record, ownership, and committed status. Use durable state or execution checks when the goal concerns effects, rather than a regex that finds the word done in the agent's response. SWE-bench evaluates patches through repository tests, while WebArena uses functional task evaluation. These are concrete operationalizations with limits: passing their checks is evidence within those checks, not a proof of all possible application behavior.
Separate agent-controlled artifacts from grader authority. Keep expected values, protected fixtures, and grader configuration outside the agent's writable or visible scope where the protocol requires concealment. A patch that disables an assertion or changes an evaluation script should not acquire a passing result merely because it made the checker easier. Validate positive and negative cases, unrelated but plausible outputs, and partial-completion cases. Where several implementations satisfy the user goal, avoid a brittle exact-string target that rejects valid alternatives solely for stylistic differences.
Protect test independence without treating secrecy as completeness
Split development and final evaluation by meaningful task families or source relationships, not only by randomly shuffling near-identical prompts. Holdouts can leak through public solutions, training material, environment artifacts, or repeated feedback. Record overlap checks and exposure limitations; the absence of a detected match does not establish perfect independence. Keep hidden expected outcomes out of the agent's observation stream and avoid letting grader error messages disclose the full target during repeated tuning. Once a case is used to develop a fix, treat it as a regression case rather than pretending it remains untouched final evidence.
A state checker can still have false positives, false negatives, flaky dependencies, or insufficient coverage. Audit accepted and rejected examples, including boundary cases and tasks with several valid outcomes. If human review supplies the audit label, preserve its rubric and uncertainty rather than calling disagreement a machine-grader error by definition. Grader sensitivity and false-positive rates can vary by domain, so a pooled correction need not transfer to every task family. Report setup and evaluation failures separately under the declared cohort policy instead of removing hard cases after seeing their results.
Keep outcome evidence independent of presentation quality
Store the exact candidate artifact, grader revision, protected fixture identity, logs, and decisive state evidence. Distinguish malformed submissions, grader crashes, and genuine goal failures. A polished explanation can be useful for diagnosis while still having no authority over the effect predicate. Conversely, a terse answer can accompany a correct state change. For goals that require qualitative judgment, use an explicit rubric and independent review rather than assuming a model judge's fluent rationale validates its own label. Test for sensitivity to irrelevant formatting and agent identity where those should not matter.
The network lab illustrates a score threshold without validating its meaning. Reset, explicitly set BOTH x=1 and w=2, predict output about 0.8176, then Play or Step. Reset and re-set BOTH x=0.5 and w=2; predict about 0.6225. A paper threshold 0.7 accepts only the first. Edits retain t; bias is fixed at −0.5. There is no task state, hidden test, calibrated outcome classifier, or audit truth. A bounded score and threshold do not establish that the accepted execution produced the required effect.
Work it through
Audit a grader rather than treating every pass as true
An independently reviewed sample of one hundred trials has TP=40, FP=10, FN=5, and TN=45 for a fixed outcome grader. Assume the audit contract is the target definition for this calculation.
The grader reports 40+10=50 passes, or fifty percent. Audited true successes total 40+5=45, or forty-five percent; the reported rate and target rate differ.
Precision is 40/(40+10)=0.8. Recall is 40/(40+5)=8/9≈0.8889. A high pass count does not remove the ten audited false positives.
False-positive rate among true failures is 10/(10+45)=2/11. Substituting p=0.45, r=8/9, and f=2/11 gives q=0.4+0.1=0.5, matching the observed grader rate under this sample's accounting.
Grader behavior is an experimental component that can distort the measured agent rate in both directions.
The living notebook
Explore the model
Interactive lab · network
Thresholding a score does not establish an outcome predicate
For EACH run Reset, set BOTH x and w, predict, then Play or Step. Fixed bias−0.5 gives output≈0.8176 at (1,2) and≈0.6225 at (0.5,2); a paper threshold 0.7 accepts only the first. Edits retain t. This unit has no task state, hidden test, grader calibration, or independent outcome audit.
- Product · wx
- 1.2
- Logit · wx − 0.5
- 0.7
- Sigmoid output
- 0.6682
One inspectable sigmoid unit, σ(wx − 0.5). Playback traces the computation graph. There is no training, attention mechanism or hidden deep network. Parameter changes pause playback and recompute the model at the current elapsed time. Reset restores both parameters and returns time to zero. Playback starts paused. Adjust either parameter, then choose Play or Step.
Look forValidate the grader's target and errors separately from its score distribution or explanation.
Pause & reason
Check your understanding
Your turn
Try it yourself
A grader audit finds TP=30, FP=5, FN=10, and TN=55. Calculate observed pass fraction, audited true-success fraction, precision, and recall. What is the denominator for each?
Take a moment to make a prediction or work it out on paper. Open a hint when you need one.
Give me a hint
Reported positives, true positives in the target population, accepted labels, and actual successes are different sets.
Compare with the solution
Observed pass fraction is 35/100=0.35 and audited true-success fraction is 40/100=0.4. Precision is 30/35≈0.8571 among accepted decisions, while recall is 30/40=0.75 among true successes. These estimates concern this audited population and carry sampling and adjudication limitations.
Keep the idea
Take it with you
- Outcome grading should check the intended effects and required invariants.
- Hidden tests protect one boundary but do not guarantee independence, correctness, or completeness.
- Grader audits and agent success estimates have different denominators and uncertainties.
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