A successful final state does not establish every property of the execution
Define monitored event properties, separate observed actions from durable effects, and report outcome and behavioral compliance as a joint result rather than an assumed equivalence.
On this page
The question for today
What you’ll understand
- Write a scoped trace property over explicit authorization and effect events.
- Explain monitor visibility, ordering, missing events, and finite-trace limits.
- Calculate outcome/property overlap without assuming independence.
An agent can reach the requested final state through an unacceptable intermediate action, and it can follow an allowed procedure while failing the goal. Outcome and behavioral checks therefore answer different questions. A trace-level property needs a defined event vocabulary, observation boundary, and treatment of incomplete executions. A plausible transcript is not automatically a faithful effect log, and passing a finite monitor is not a proof that every unobserved behavior or future deployment satisfies the same property.
Define the property over events the evaluator can actually observe
Choose concrete events such as tool submission, accepted authorization, committed mutation, acknowledgment, cancellation, and completion. Distinguish a requested action from a durable effect: a timed-out request may have committed, while a confident action description may never have reached a tool. Where the task requires authorization, bind its scope to the actor, target, operation, and applicable lifetime rather than checking that the word approved appeared somewhere. Prior valid authorization can remain applicable under its contract; a monitor should not invent a requirement for a new approval at every step.
Instrument the relevant boundary and preserve ordering information, including request identifiers and causal links across asynchronous services. Wall-clock order from unsynchronized hosts can be misleading. Missing or dropped events should lead to a declared unknown or incomplete result where the property cannot be assessed, rather than silently counting as compliance. An agent-written narrative is useful evidence but cannot substitute for the trusted effect stream when the property concerns actual mutations. Likewise, an effect log may omit private reasoning, so do not claim it proves a property about every internal computation.
Finite monitors and task goals have different coverage
Some properties can be falsified by one observed event, such as a committed operation outside the allowed scope. Others require a completion condition or a deadline, such as eventually reconciling a transaction. A finite unfinished trace may leave the latter unresolved. Define the monitor's termination semantics and distinguish pass, fail, and unknown when needed. A checker for one authorization invariant does not establish correctness of values, task completion, privacy, or every other constraint. Keep property definitions versioned alongside the action and environment semantics they depend on.
Do not infer process compliance from an outcome pass or infer task success from a clean process trace. The original tau-bench setting combines domain policies, API tools, and user interaction, illustrating why conversational behavior and end-state checks can be evaluated together while remaining distinct. Trace monitors can locate specific violations, and outcome graders can detect missed effects that a syntactic action checker overlooks. Both can have instrumentation and specification defects, so construct known passing, failing, and incomplete traces to validate the combined evaluation.
Report a joint table and preserve decisive counterexamples
For every fixed cohort, report both individual pass rates and the joint categories, with unknown assessments shown separately under the reporting protocol. Inspect outcome-only passes for hidden process failures and property-only passes for incomplete goal execution. A single composite score can hide these patterns unless its conjunction and weights are explicit. Preserve the smallest decisive event evidence and the full replay context needed to understand it. Do not remove a difficult trace from the denominator merely because its monitor exposes a new instrumentation gap after results are collected.
The probability lab counts hypothetical independent property passes only. Reset, explicitly set BOTH p=0.7 and n=20, predict mean fourteen, then Play or Step. Reset and re-set BOTH p=0.8 and n=20; predict sixteen. Edits retain t; playback highlights exact binomial outcomes. There are no authorization events, causal links, outcome labels, or monitors. This toy cannot calculate joint compliance from a marginal rate; the overlap table in the example supplies that missing information explicitly rather than assuming the two checks are independent.
Work it through
Keep outcome and behavior in separate columns
One hundred fully assessable sandbox executions have forty passing both outcome and property, ten passing outcome only, thirty passing property only, and twenty passing neither. All counts use the same fixed graders and trace boundary.
Outcome success is (40+10)/100=0.5. Property compliance is (40+30)/100=0.7. Neither marginal states how often both requirements were met.
Joint success is 40/100=0.4. Among outcome successes, property compliance is 40/50=0.8, so 0.5×0.8=0.4 as required by conditional probability.
Multiplying marginals would give 0.5×0.7=0.35, a different number. The data does not support independence; inspect the ten outcome-only and thirty property-only cases for different failure mechanisms.
A final-state pass and a trace-property pass provide complementary evidence whose dependence must be measured.
The living notebook
Explore the model
Interactive lab · probability
A marginal pass count cannot supply a joint event
For EACH run Reset, set BOTH p and n, predict, then Play or Step. At n=20, p=0.7 gives mean 14 and p=0.8 gives mean 16. Edits retain t. This exact iid model has no trace events, causal monitor, outcome grader, or dependence between two checks.
- Mean · np
- 5
- Variance · np(1−p)
- 2.5
- Total probability
- 1
These are exact binomial probabilities for independent trials with one fixed success probability. Playback tours the distribution; it does not resample outcomes. Parameter changes pause playback and recompute the model at the current elapsed time. Reset restores both parameters and returns time to zero. Playback starts paused. Adjust either parameter, then choose Play or Step.
Look forMeasure the outcome/property overlap rather than multiplying marginal rates without an independence argument.
Pause & reason
Check your understanding
Your turn
Try it yourself
Fifty assessable trials have twenty passing both, five outcome only, fifteen property only, and ten neither. Calculate outcome, property, and joint rates. Is the product of the marginal rates equal to the joint rate?
Take a moment to make a prediction or work it out on paper. Open a hint when you need one.
Give me a hint
Use the same fifty-trial denominator and count both-pass cases once.
Compare with the solution
Outcome rate is 25/50=0.5, property rate 35/50=0.7, and joint rate 20/50=0.4. The product 0.35 differs from 0.4, so substituting marginal multiplication would be wrong for this cohort. The table, not plausibility of the trace, determines the overlap.
Keep the idea
Take it with you
- Trace properties require explicit events, trusted visibility, and finite-execution semantics.
- Outcome success and process compliance are different events with measurable dependence.
- Joint tables and replayable counterexamples preserve distinctions hidden by a single score.
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