Fisher information and Cramér–Rao bounds
Derive an exact variance lower bound from a score covariance and learn when its assumptions fail.
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The question for today
What you’ll understand
- Compute scores and Fisher information in a regular scalar model.
- Derive the scalar unbiased Cramér–Rao bound using Cauchy–Schwarz.
- Recognize parameter-dependent support and boundary failures of regularity.
How precisely could an unbiased estimator possibly measure a parameter in a particular experiment? Fisher information quantifies local sensitivity of the probability law, and the Cramér–Rao inequality turns that sensitivity into a lower bound on variance. The bound is useful because it compares an estimator with a mathematical limit rather than with a few competitors. Its derivation is short, but its assumptions do real work. A moving support boundary can invalidate the key derivative identity, and a formal information calculation then gives a misleading answer.
The score measures local likelihood sensitivity
For a differentiable scalar density at an interior parameter value, the score is the derivative of its log density with respect to the parameter. Assume a common parameter-independent support, justified differentiation under the integral, and a square-integrable score with positive finite information. Differentiating total probability one shows that the score has expectation zero. Its second moment is Fisher information. If a second differentiation is justified as well, information equals the negative expected second derivative of log density. These equalities are regularity conclusions rather than automatic symbolic rules.
For independent observations, joint log likelihood is a sum, so the joint score is a sum. The individual scores have mean zero and are independent; their cross moments vanish. Joint information therefore adds, giving times one-observation information in an iid experiment. Correlated measurements generally do not have this simple additive information. Changing parameter coordinates also changes the numerical information: applying the chain rule multiplies it by the square of the derivative of the old parameter with respect to the new one. Information must be interpreted together with its coordinate.
A covariance identity yields the bound
Let be a parameter-free statistic unbiased for a differentiable target , with finite variance. Assume differentiation of its expectation is legitimate and equals integration against the density derivative. Differentiating unbiasedness gives . Because the score has mean zero, this is the covariance of estimator and score. Cauchy–Schwarz bounds its square by estimator variance times score variance, yielding the scalar Cramér–Rao inequality. The proof explicitly uses both unbiasedness and differentiation conditions.
Equality in Cauchy–Schwarz requires the centered estimator to be a scalar multiple of the score almost surely at the parameter value. A lower bound need not be attainable by an available estimator, so calling every estimator above it inefficient can obscure an unattainable target. For biased estimators the derivative of their mean replaces the target derivative in the covariance calculation; the simple unbiased formula cannot be applied unchanged. With nuisance parameters the appropriate matrix information and target gradient are needed, rather than pretending other unknown coordinates are known.
A boundary can break the argument
Consider iid uniform observations on . Differentiating only the interior density gives the formal joint log derivative , a nonzero constant. Its expectation is not zero because the support moves with the parameter and the missing boundary term matters. Consequently the regular score proof above does not apply. The sample maximum estimates this endpoint with uncertainty of order , unlike the usual regular mean-estimation scale. This is a model feature, not a contradiction of a valid theorem.
Bernoulli probabilities at zero and one also lie on the parameter-space boundary, where interior formulas containing cannot simply be evaluated. Inside the open interval the model is regular and the sample mean exactly attains the unbiased bound. Statements about approximate normal confidence intervals still need a separate finite-sample or asymptotic argument. Attaining an information bound does not prove that the estimator's distribution is normal, and an exact variance expression does not automatically justify a Gaussian tail probability.
Work it through
The Bernoulli mean attains its bound
For iid Bernoulli trials at an interior probability, compute information for and the unbiased variance bound. Evaluate both at .
For one trial, differentiating gives score . Its variance is .
Twenty independent trials have information . For target , the derivative is one, so the variance bound is .
At , . Information is , and the bound is . The sample mean has exactly this variance and is unbiased.
The sample mean attains the regular unbiased Cramér–Rao bound at every interior probability; at p = 0.25 its standard deviation is about 0.09682.
The living notebook
Explore the model
Interactive lab · sampling
Compare the bound with an exact distribution
Reset and set both . Predict the sample-mean variance and compare its readout with the derived bound. Reset and set both ; predict one quarter of that variance. The exact binomial bars can remain visibly discrete even when the bound is attained. The normal overlay is an approximation, not the information theorem.
- Mean sample proportion
- 0.5
- Sample-mean variance
- 0.0125
- Uniform CDF error bound
- ≤ 0.1062
Exact binomial masses for the mean of n independent Bernoulli trials, compared with normal mass between adjacent half-count boundaries; normal tails outside the finite support remain outside the bars. Playback highlights outcomes, not random samples. The Berry–Esseen bound applies to standardized CDFs, not individual bars or continuity-corrected errors. At p = 0 or 1, normal comparison and that bound are disabled. Normal-CDF evaluation uses a numerical approximation with absolute error below 7.5×10⁻⁸ (at most 1.5×10⁻⁷ per interval, before rounding). Parameter changes pause playback and recompute the model at the current elapsed time. Reset restores both parameters and returns time to zero. Playback starts paused. Adjust either parameter, then choose Play or Step.
Look forExact variance optimality and normal-distribution approximation are distinct claims.
Pause & reason
Check your understanding
Your turn
Try it yourself
Suppose are iid , with variance known and unrestricted real mean. Compute full-sample information for , the unbiased variance bound, and whether the sample mean attains it.
Take a moment to make a prediction or work it out on paper. Open a hint when you need one.
Give me a hint
Differentiate the log density with respect to the mean, keeping the known variance fixed. Add information over independent observations.
Compare with the solution
One score is , whose second moment is . Nine observations give information , hence variance bound . The sample mean is unbiased and has variance , so it attains the bound. Here its normal distribution is also exact because a linear combination of independent normal variables is normal; that fact is separate from the bound's proof.
Keep the idea
Take it with you
- Fisher information is the score's second moment under regularity.
- The unbiased bound follows from a derivative-covariance identity and Cauchy–Schwarz.
- Moving support, boundaries, nuisance parameters, and bias require additional care.
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