core29 min studyLesson 246 in Mathematics

Maximum likelihood and score equations

Find global likelihood maximizers, handle boundaries, and derive a regular asymptotic normal approximation without promising exact finite-sample behavior.

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What you’ll understand

  • Find a maximum by checking score roots, curvature, and boundaries.
  • Distinguish a maximum-likelihood estimator from an unbiased estimator.
  • State sufficient local conditions behind a scalar MLE normal limit.

Maximum likelihood selects the candidate law that gives the observed data the greatest likelihood. Its appeal is a coherent construction across many models, rather than a universal finite-sample optimality guarantee. A score equation is often a useful computational route, but a root can be a minimum, a saddle, or only a local maximum. Some likelihoods have no finite maximizer. A careful solution therefore combines calculus with the actual parameter space and support, then separates exact conclusions from large-sample approximations.

A maximum is more than a stationary point

Define an MLE as a parameter value attaining the supremum of the likelihood over the permitted parameter space. Where the likelihood is positive, maximizing its logarithm is equivalent because the logarithm is increasing. An interior differentiable maximum has zero score, but that necessary condition is not sufficient. Examine concavity, compare candidate values, and check boundaries. A closed parameter space can contain a boundary maximum even when no score root exists in its interior; an open parameter space may have only an unattained supremum.

For Bernoulli data with both successes and failures, the log likelihood is strictly concave on the open probability interval and its score root is the sample proportion. If every observation is a success, the likelihood increases toward one. On [0,1][0,1], the MLE is one; on (0,1)(0,1), no maximizer exists. This difference is a parameter-space decision, not a numerical convergence failure. Likewise, the uniform upper-endpoint MLE is the sample maximum, obtained by respecting the support rather than solving an interior score equation.

θ^∈arg max⁡θ∈Θℓn(θ),ℓn(θ)=∑i=1nlog⁡fθ(Xi),ℓn′(θ^)=0 at an interior differentiable maximum\widehat\theta\in\operatorname*{arg\,max}_{\theta\in\Theta}\ell_n(\theta),\qquad \ell_n(\theta)=\sum_{i=1}^n\log f_\theta(X_i),\qquad \ell_n'(\widehat\theta)=0\ \text{at an interior differentiable maximum}
The maximizing definition is primary. The score equation applies only under its stated interior differentiability conditions.↔ Scroll wide equations horizontally.

Exact properties come from the model

For positive exponential waiting times with rate λ\lambda, the log likelihood is nlog⁡λ−λSn\log\lambda-\lambda S plus a data-only term, where SS is the sum. When S>0S>0, the unique maximizing rate is n/Sn/S: the second derivative is negative everywhere, and the log likelihood tends to minus infinity at either end of the positive rate domain. The reciprocal of the sample mean is a rate, so its physical units are inverse time. Confusing a rate with a mean waiting time reverses the interpretation.

MLE construction does not impose unbiasedness. For iid exponential observations and n>1n>1, the sum has gamma shape nn and rate λ\lambda, yielding E[1/S]=λ/(n−1)E[1/S]=\lambda/(n-1). Thus the rate MLE has expectation nλ/(n−1)n\lambda/(n-1), larger than its target. Multiplying it by (n−1)/n(n-1)/n removes that bias. This correction is a finite-sample calculation and depends on the exponential model. Whether to use it depends on the chosen loss and other requirements, not solely on the label maximum likelihood.

λ^=nS,Eλ[λ^]=nλn−1 (n>1),λ~=n−1S\widehat\lambda=\frac nS,\qquad E_\lambda[\widehat\lambda]=\frac{n\lambda}{n-1}\ (n>1),\qquad \widetilde\lambda=\frac{n-1}{S}
The expectation uses the exact gamma distribution of the sum. The corrected estimator is unbiased; the MLE generally is not.↔ Scroll wide equations horizontally.

A local expansion explains a normal limit

Here is a precise route to the usual scalar limit, stated as sufficient assumptions rather than a universal theorem about MLEs. Suppose observations are iid from a correctly specified identifiable model at an interior true value. Assume a consistent sequence of interior score roots exists, log densities are twice continuously differentiable on a common neighborhood with fixed support, the true score has mean zero and positive finite variance II, and the normalized negative Hessian converges uniformly in probability to II on shrinking neighborhoods containing the roots and truth. Assume the iid score central limit theorem applies.

Taylor's theorem then writes the estimation error as the average score divided by a nearby normalized negative Hessian. The score central limit theorem and convergence of that denominator give a centered normal limit with variance I−1I^{-1} after multiplication by n\sqrt n. This is an asymptotic statement for a fixed regular true parameter, not exact normality at a chosen sample size or uniform validity near boundaries. Misspecification, weak identification, or nonexisting finite maximizers require other arguments; maximizing software cannot establish those hypotheses on its own.

n(θ^−θ0)=n−1/2ℓn′(θ0)−n−1ℓn′′(θn∗) →d N(0,I(θ0)−1)\sqrt n(\widehat\theta-\theta_0)=\frac{n^{-1/2}\ell_n'(\theta_0)}{-n^{-1}\ell_n''(\theta_n^*)}\ \xrightarrow{d}\ N(0,I(\theta_0)^{-1})
The intermediate point lies between the consistent root and truth. The stated score CLT and local Hessian convergence justify this limit.↔ Scroll wide equations horizontally.

Estimate a waiting-time rate

Four positive waiting times total 10 seconds under an iid exponential-rate model. Find the MLE, confirm it is the global maximum, and compute the unbiased rate correction.

  1. Discarding data-only terms, the log likelihood is 4log⁡λ−10λ4\log\lambda-10\lambda. Its derivative is 4/λ−104/\lambda-10, which vanishes at λ=0.4\lambda=0.4 per second.

  2. The second derivative is −4/λ2<0-4/\lambda^2<0. The log likelihood tends to minus infinity as the rate tends to zero or infinity, so this stationary point is the unique global maximum.

  3. The exact unbiased correction is (n − 1)/S = 3/10 = 0.3 per second. It differs from the MLE because the latter is not unbiased in this finite sample.

The result

The MLE rate is 0.4 s⁻¹ and the unbiased corrected rate is 0.3 s⁻¹. Neither calculation alone supplies a confidence interval.

Explore the model

Interactive lab

Interactive lab · sampling

A regular estimator can still have a discrete law

Reset, set both p=0.2,n=10p=0.2,n=10, and predict that the Bernoulli MLE K/nK/n has probability 0.810≈0.107370.8^{10}\approx0.10737 of being zero. Reset and set both p=0.2,n=100p=0.2,n=100; predict a much smaller endpoint mass 0.81000.8^{100}. Compare exact bars with the normal overlay. This lab shows a Bernoulli estimator's sampling law, not the exponential-rate likelihood or a generic MLE optimizer.

A regular estimator can still have a discrete lawExact binomial masses for the mean of n independent Bernoulli trials, compared with normal mass between adjacent half-count boundaries; normal tails outside the finite support remain outside the bars. Playback highlights outcomes, not random samples. The Berry–Esseen bound applies to standardized CDFs, not individual bars or continuity-corrected errors. At p = 0 or 1, normal comparison and that bound are disabled. Normal-CDF evaluation uses a numerical approximation with absolute error below 7.5×10⁻⁸ (at most 1.5×10⁻⁷ per interval, before rounding). Current readings: Mean sample proportion: 0.5; Sample-mean variance: 0.0125; Uniform CDF error bound: ≤ 0.1062. All parameters are adjustable with the labeled controls below.Exact distribution of the mean of 20 independent Bernoulli variables with success probability 0.5; playback highlights outcome 0.00.250.50.75100.0580.1150.1730.23Sample mean · k / nProbability massNormal bin masses are an approximationk = 0 · exact probability = 9.54e-7
Exact binomial massNormal interval massHighlighted outcome / mean
Mean sample proportion
0.5
Sample-mean variance
0.0125
Uniform CDF error bound
≤ 0.1062
t = 0 s

Exact binomial masses for the mean of n independent Bernoulli trials, compared with normal mass between adjacent half-count boundaries; normal tails outside the finite support remain outside the bars. Playback highlights outcomes, not random samples. The Berry–Esseen bound applies to standardized CDFs, not individual bars or continuity-corrected errors. At p = 0 or 1, normal comparison and that bound are disabled. Normal-CDF evaluation uses a numerical approximation with absolute error below 7.5×10⁻⁸ (at most 1.5×10⁻⁷ per interval, before rounding). Parameter changes pause playback and recompute the model at the current elapsed time. Reset restores both parameters and returns time to zero. Playback starts paused. Adjust either parameter, then choose Play or Step.

Look forA useful asymptotic approximation does not make a finite-sample distribution exactly continuous or normal.

Check your understanding

Ten Bernoulli observations are all successes, and the parameter space is the open interval (0,1). What happens to maximum likelihood?

Try it yourself

Three iid uniform observations on [0,θ] are 1, 2, and 4, with θ positive. Find the MLE using the full likelihood and explain why an interior score equation would miss it.

Take a moment to make a prediction or work it out on paper. Open a hint when you need one.

Give me a hint

First identify which parameter values assign nonzero density to all three observations. Then compare the density over that permitted region.

Compare with the solution

The likelihood is zero for θ<4\theta<4 and equals θ−3\theta^{-3} for θ≥4\theta\ge4. On the latter region it decreases, so the maximum is θ^=4\widehat\theta=4. The interior derivative of the log likelihood is −3/θ-3/\theta, never zero. The maximum occurs at the data-imposed support boundary; the regular interior score condition does not apply there.

Take it with you

  • Check existence, global maximization, support, and boundaries before trusting a score root.
  • An MLE can be biased in finite samples.
  • The usual MLE normal limit needs consistency, regularity, a score CLT, and Hessian control.

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