Maximum likelihood and score equations
Find global likelihood maximizers, handle boundaries, and derive a regular asymptotic normal approximation without promising exact finite-sample behavior.
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The question for today
What you’ll understand
- Find a maximum by checking score roots, curvature, and boundaries.
- Distinguish a maximum-likelihood estimator from an unbiased estimator.
- State sufficient local conditions behind a scalar MLE normal limit.
Maximum likelihood selects the candidate law that gives the observed data the greatest likelihood. Its appeal is a coherent construction across many models, rather than a universal finite-sample optimality guarantee. A score equation is often a useful computational route, but a root can be a minimum, a saddle, or only a local maximum. Some likelihoods have no finite maximizer. A careful solution therefore combines calculus with the actual parameter space and support, then separates exact conclusions from large-sample approximations.
A maximum is more than a stationary point
Define an MLE as a parameter value attaining the supremum of the likelihood over the permitted parameter space. Where the likelihood is positive, maximizing its logarithm is equivalent because the logarithm is increasing. An interior differentiable maximum has zero score, but that necessary condition is not sufficient. Examine concavity, compare candidate values, and check boundaries. A closed parameter space can contain a boundary maximum even when no score root exists in its interior; an open parameter space may have only an unattained supremum.
For Bernoulli data with both successes and failures, the log likelihood is strictly concave on the open probability interval and its score root is the sample proportion. If every observation is a success, the likelihood increases toward one. On , the MLE is one; on , no maximizer exists. This difference is a parameter-space decision, not a numerical convergence failure. Likewise, the uniform upper-endpoint MLE is the sample maximum, obtained by respecting the support rather than solving an interior score equation.
Exact properties come from the model
For positive exponential waiting times with rate , the log likelihood is plus a data-only term, where is the sum. When , the unique maximizing rate is : the second derivative is negative everywhere, and the log likelihood tends to minus infinity at either end of the positive rate domain. The reciprocal of the sample mean is a rate, so its physical units are inverse time. Confusing a rate with a mean waiting time reverses the interpretation.
MLE construction does not impose unbiasedness. For iid exponential observations and , the sum has gamma shape and rate , yielding . Thus the rate MLE has expectation , larger than its target. Multiplying it by removes that bias. This correction is a finite-sample calculation and depends on the exponential model. Whether to use it depends on the chosen loss and other requirements, not solely on the label maximum likelihood.
A local expansion explains a normal limit
Here is a precise route to the usual scalar limit, stated as sufficient assumptions rather than a universal theorem about MLEs. Suppose observations are iid from a correctly specified identifiable model at an interior true value. Assume a consistent sequence of interior score roots exists, log densities are twice continuously differentiable on a common neighborhood with fixed support, the true score has mean zero and positive finite variance , and the normalized negative Hessian converges uniformly in probability to on shrinking neighborhoods containing the roots and truth. Assume the iid score central limit theorem applies.
Taylor's theorem then writes the estimation error as the average score divided by a nearby normalized negative Hessian. The score central limit theorem and convergence of that denominator give a centered normal limit with variance after multiplication by . This is an asymptotic statement for a fixed regular true parameter, not exact normality at a chosen sample size or uniform validity near boundaries. Misspecification, weak identification, or nonexisting finite maximizers require other arguments; maximizing software cannot establish those hypotheses on its own.
Work it through
Estimate a waiting-time rate
Four positive waiting times total 10 seconds under an iid exponential-rate model. Find the MLE, confirm it is the global maximum, and compute the unbiased rate correction.
Discarding data-only terms, the log likelihood is . Its derivative is , which vanishes at per second.
The second derivative is . The log likelihood tends to minus infinity as the rate tends to zero or infinity, so this stationary point is the unique global maximum.
The exact unbiased correction is (n − 1)/S = 3/10 = 0.3 per second. It differs from the MLE because the latter is not unbiased in this finite sample.
The MLE rate is 0.4 s⁻¹ and the unbiased corrected rate is 0.3 s⁻¹. Neither calculation alone supplies a confidence interval.
The living notebook
Explore the model
Interactive lab · sampling
A regular estimator can still have a discrete law
Reset, set both , and predict that the Bernoulli MLE has probability of being zero. Reset and set both ; predict a much smaller endpoint mass . Compare exact bars with the normal overlay. This lab shows a Bernoulli estimator's sampling law, not the exponential-rate likelihood or a generic MLE optimizer.
- Mean sample proportion
- 0.5
- Sample-mean variance
- 0.0125
- Uniform CDF error bound
- ≤ 0.1062
Exact binomial masses for the mean of n independent Bernoulli trials, compared with normal mass between adjacent half-count boundaries; normal tails outside the finite support remain outside the bars. Playback highlights outcomes, not random samples. The Berry–Esseen bound applies to standardized CDFs, not individual bars or continuity-corrected errors. At p = 0 or 1, normal comparison and that bound are disabled. Normal-CDF evaluation uses a numerical approximation with absolute error below 7.5×10⁻⁸ (at most 1.5×10⁻⁷ per interval, before rounding). Parameter changes pause playback and recompute the model at the current elapsed time. Reset restores both parameters and returns time to zero. Playback starts paused. Adjust either parameter, then choose Play or Step.
Look forA useful asymptotic approximation does not make a finite-sample distribution exactly continuous or normal.
Pause & reason
Check your understanding
Your turn
Try it yourself
Three iid uniform observations on [0,θ] are 1, 2, and 4, with θ positive. Find the MLE using the full likelihood and explain why an interior score equation would miss it.
Take a moment to make a prediction or work it out on paper. Open a hint when you need one.
Give me a hint
First identify which parameter values assign nonzero density to all three observations. Then compare the density over that permitted region.
Compare with the solution
The likelihood is zero for and equals for . On the latter region it decreases, so the maximum is . The interior derivative of the log likelihood is , never zero. The maximum occurs at the data-imposed support boundary; the regular interior score condition does not apply there.
Keep the idea
Take it with you
- Check existence, global maximization, support, and boundaries before trusting a score root.
- An MLE can be biased in finite samples.
- The usual MLE normal limit needs consistency, regularity, a score CLT, and Hessian control.
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